GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY
DEPARTMENT
OF MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
Spring
2002
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Course Number: |
Management Science 224 |
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Course Title: |
Executive
Decision Making |
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Course Description: |
Concepts and methods for making complex
decisions in business and government; identifying objectives and
alternatives, setting priorities, allocating resources, planning, resolving
conflict, and making group decisions. |
|
Professor: |
Dr. Ernest Forman. Monroe 402. 202-994-6206. E-mail: forman@gwu.edu |
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Office Hours: |
By Appointment: See http://mdm.gwu.edu/forman |
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Required Textbooks / Software: |
Forman, Ernest H., and Selly, Mary Ann, Decision
By Objectives, World Scientific
Press, 2001, or download from Expert Choice 2000 download: http://extranet.expertchoice.com
Username: fall2000; PW: gwu Click on Expert Choice 2000 Beta7 User ID for installation with full features to
be e-mailed. Optional: Expert Choice CD -- available from
Mgt Sci. Secretary |
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Supplemental Textbooks: |
Thomas L. Saaty, Decision Making for Leaders, RWS Publications, Pittsburgh, PA.
1986 Thomas L. Saaty, Fundamentals of Decision
Making and Priority Theory with The Analytic Hierarchy Process, Volume VI of
the Analytic Hierarchy Process Series, RWS Publications, Pittsburgh, PA.
1994. |
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Additional Resources |
http://mdm.gwu.edu/forman/224.htm Prometheus: Within two days after first class, visit: http://prometheus.gwu.edu If you do not have a student account, then
click on create new student account. Distance Education: Log in to Course # : Foggy Bottom: 47346 Distance Education: 47364 Password to be e-mailed. |
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Course Objectives: |
To enable students to: o Structure complex decision problems o Identify alternatives o Identify objectives o Identify constraints o Incorporate both quantitative and
qualitative information in the decision process o Deal with competing factors o Investigate sensitivity of decisions o Communicate recommendations and rationale o Deal with group decisions and conflict o Learn how to communicate better both orally
and in writing o Make effective presentations |
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Method of Instruction: |
Lectures, projects, student
presentations. Students will learn by
applying theoretical decision making concepts to real world problems. A large portion of the course is devoted
to oral/Powerpoint and written presentations. The Professor will provide individual guidance throughout the
course both during classroom presentations as well as in individual and
electronic consultations (e.g., Prometheus ICHAT). |
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Method for Grading: |
The final grade will be based on deliverables (projects), and student presentations. A short quiz may be given at the end of the course. |
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Assignments: |
Projects, presentations, and research/lecture. |
Two projects are to be performed by each student
working in a group of two (individual projects or larger groups may be allowed depending
on circumstances.) Each project will
address an important, interesting and complex real world decision.
Project "A" will involve a business,
political or societal REAL WORLD decision, evaluated from the perspective of a
specific decision maker (makers).
Project "B" will be a resource
allocation or analytic network process model.
Students, working in groups of about four or
five individuals, will research, prepare an annotated bibliography and lecture
notes, and make a presentation on one of the following:
A) Another
multi-criteria decision methodology such as MAUT or ELECTRE. A starting reference is “Making
Multiple-Objective Decisions” by Mansooreh Mollaghasemi and Julia Pet-Edwards,
from the IEEE Computer Society. http://computer.org
B) A
contemporary management trend or business process, such as:
Management by Objectives
Zero based budgeting
Total Quality Management
Quality Function Deployment
Business Process Re-engineering
Performance Metrics
The Balanced Scorecard
…
The first part of the presentation should include a discussion of the history, content, strengths, weaknesses, successes, and failures. The second part of the presentation is to include a framework and examples of how concepts and processes for structuring, measuring and synthesis studied in this course are applicable to the management trend or business process.
Topics for Project C must be approved by the
Professor beforehand.
For each real world project, a presentation of
the decision problem, alternative solutions, objectives, background
information, plan of attack and preliminary decision model will be made to the
class (via Powerpoint slides and notes for distance education section). Class critique will be used to improve the
problem definition, model and plan of attack as appropriate. A subsequent presentation will be made to
the class after completing the project.
A complete draft will be submitted followed by a
revision for each real world project.
Each class member will be a reader for one project during the
semester. Examples of projects from
prior classes can be found at http://mdm.gwu.edu/forman
Class
Meetings
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Session 1 |
Decision making phases. What is a good decision? Multiple objectives. Why are decisions difficult? Cognitive limitations. Unfreezing. Non-linear utility. Need to combine different scales. Subjectivity. Pros and cons. Why models go wrong. Scales of measurement. Weights and scores. Difficulties. Relative vs. absolute judgments. Use of words instead of numbers. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Assignment: Respond to Personal Info. Discussion Topic in Prometheus. Begin reading texts -- proceed at your own pace and in concert with the topics in the syllabus. |
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Session 2 |
Overview of Expert Choice software. Examining an existing multi‑objective model including goal, objectives and alternatives. Making judgments. Synthesizing to arrive at a tentative solution. Sensitivity analysis. Creating a small model. Modes of comparisons (Verbal, Numerical, Graphical). Missing judgments. Validation exercise. Assignment: Identify an interesting personal decision to
be evaluated and presented in class #4. |
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Session 3 |
Review of complex choice models. Data Grid for global alternatives. Ratings, step functions, utility curves and direct priorities. Uncertainty and forecasting. Scenarios and Players. Mathematics of AHP: redundancy, eigenvector solution, inconsistency. Causes of inconsistency and improving consistency. Ideal and distributive synthesis modes. Axioms of AHP. |
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Session 4 |
Personal model presentations. (Submit:
General Discussion – Personal Choice Models) Uncertainty
and forecasting. |
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Session 5 |
Presentation and discussion of first project plans and preliminary models for groups GA1-GA5. (Submit: Project A – A1
Initial Presentation. Annotated Powerpoint file and EC Model) |
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Session 6 |
Presentation
and discussion of first project plans and preliminary models for groups
GA6-GA10. |
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Session 7 |
Resource Allocation. First Draft of Project A to Student Reader (Submit: Project A – A2
first draft for Student Reader. Word file and EC Model) …(Submit: Project A – A3
review of first draft by Student Reader) |
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Session 8 |
Resource Allocation continued. First Draft of Project A due. (Submit: Project A – A4
first draft for Professor. Word file and EC Model) |
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Session 9 |
Feedback in decision modeling. The Analytic Network Process (ANP) First draft of Project A returned. (Project A – A5 first draft
reviewed by Professor) |
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Session 10 |
Presentation and discussion of second project plans and preliminary models for all groups (GB1-GB10). (Submit Project A – A6
second draft for Professor. Word file and EC Model) (Submit Project B – B1
initial presentation. Annotated Powerpoint file and EC Model) |
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Sessions 11 |
Meeting facilitation, group decision making, and conferencing (Part I) First draft of Project B due. Second draft of Project A due. (Mid Week Prior --Submit Project B – B2 first draft for Student
Reader) …(Next Day -Submit: Project
B – B3 review of first draft by Student Reader) (Submit: Project B – B4 first
draft for Professor. Word file and EC Model) |
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Session 12 |
Meeting facilitation, group decision making, and conferencing (Part II) (Project B – B5 first draft reviewed by Professor) |
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Session 13 |
Project C Presentations Second draft of Project B due. (Submit Project C –
Powerpoint and Annotated Bibliography) (Submit Project B – B6
second draft for Professor. Word file and EC Model) |
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Session 14 |
Final (polished) presentations of projects A and B. |
Project
Report Requirements and Guidelines
The following guidelines may help you in selecting
and organizing your work.
·
Choose
problems/decisions that are both important and interesting and will ‘make
something happen’. Avoid hypothetical
problems/decisions or those that have already been made.
·
Each project paper
should state why you are doing the project and indicate your involvement or
connection with the organization for whom the project is being done.
·
Emphasize the
problem being addressed, not the model or approach, e.g. start by discussing
the problem, not methods.
·
Explain what you
have done (and how you did it) assuming the reader has no knowledge of
modeling, or methods such as AHP or optimization.
·
Include a
meaningful title. Avoid titles such as
Project A…
·
Include a succinct
Abstract
·
Integrate figures
into the report and make meaningful references.
Figures, tables, etc. cited in the report should
be titled, numbered, and included in the body of the report. Others can be in appendix.
·
Number pages.
·
Single space
·
Check for
widow/orphans, spelling, good grammar.
·
Discuss the significance
of both the results, and the process of arriving at the results.
·
Identify/discuss
alternative approaches to solving the problem (if appropriate).
·
Include
Information Documents for the Goal, other major objectives, and the
alternatives in your AHP models.
·
Bibliography.
First drafts of papers are to be COMPLETE
drafts. When preparing second draft, it
is advisable to revise according to comments made on first draft.
Interest/importance of topic
Model structure and analysis
Organization and comprehensibility of the
written report
Good use of English Language
EDUCATIONAL PHILOSOPHY
As an expression of the overall
philosophy of the Department of Management Science, during your coursework you
will have an opportunity to learn material of substantive importance to you as
a professional. Simultaneously, you
will have variety of opportunities to enhance your professional skills by:
m applying the ideas of the course
to identifying and solving real world problems;
m reading more perceptively when
doing primary and secondary research required to solve such problems;
m writing more effectively;
m working more creatively with
others in organizational settings;
m presenting your ideas more
effectively in public forums;
m learning to learn.